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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."